Hold on Tight
by Warren Coats

After returning home from Kabul, I met with Governor Shabibi of the Central Bank of Iraq at the IMF. We talked about the collapse of the government securities market in Iraq. I hesitated to complain about the slow reporting of some important monetary data, knowing that staff are having an increasingly difficult time getting to work. Part of the problem is the increasing lack of cooperation between departments, which tends to reflect ethnic antagonisms. My daily dialogs with colleagues and Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad seems increasingly surreal, like dialoging with shadows. I am holding my breath.

Within an hour of meeting with Governor Shabibi, I met with Governor Delawari of the Afghanistan central bank, also at the IMF. I had met with him the week before in Kabul. I often find it difficult not to mix up the countries I am working in, but switching from one Governor to the next within an hour proved unusually challenging, especially with so many similarities in the monetary area.

We are the most powerful nation on earth and that history has ever known. We are dissipating that power at a rapid rate (militarily, financially, and diplomatically) but still have a long way to go. We can do less with our superb military than we like to think, especially when acting alone as we increasingly are. Our President seems to continue living in the shadows of denial, though he now admits that “we are not winning the War in Iraq.”

My Christmas present to all is to recommend that you read the excellent new book by my friend Michael Lind: The American Way of Strategy.Have a wonderful holiday season and hold on tight.

Warren Coats is an international financial consultant.