Senate Battle Tied
by Scott Rasmussen

In the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, it’s all tied with 49 seats rated as Republican or Leans Republican and 49 seats are rated as Democrat or Leans Democrat (see State-by-State Summary). Only two states remain in the Toss-Up category--New Jersey, and Missouri.

The latest change has come from Tennessee, where Harold Ford’s (D) progress has caused us to change our rating of the contest from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.”  In mid-summer, Ford trailed Republican Bob Corker by a dozen points. Tennessee began the year in the “Leans Republican” column and was just moved to “Toss-Up” status a month ago.

While the topline numbers show 49 seats for each political party, nine of the seats listed for Democrats are only in the “Leans Democrat” category. With over a month to go until Election Day, it is possible for any of those seats to slip back into “Toss-Up” status. For the GOP, Virginia is the only state rated as “Leans Republican.”

In addition to Tennessee, the seats are now ranked as “Leans Democrat” are Montana, Rhode Island, Ohio,Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Maryland, Washingtonand Michigan.

Democrats have to win all nine races leaning their way plus both Toss-Ups to regain control of the Senate. While that’s a tall order, recent history shows that it is quite possible for one party or the other to sweep all the close races. The Democrats did so in Election 2000 and the Republicans returned the favor in 2002. If the Democrats win all those seats but one, there would be a 50-50 tie. In that circumstance, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast the deciding vote in his Constitutional role as the presiding officer of the Senate.

President Bush’s Job Approval ratings have been a concern for Republicans all year. The President’s Job Approval for September was up a point over August, but there has not been a fundamental re-assessment of his performance.

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (D) is now running for re-election as a Independent after losing a Primary Campaign to Ned Lamont (D). However, this race has no impact on the Senate Balance of Power considerations since whichever candidate wins will line up as a Democrat when the Senate convenes next January.

History of Changes

On September 25, we shifted Washington from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat”

On September 18, Montana, Rhode Island, and Ohio all shifted from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.”

On September 12, Washington shifted from “Leans Democrat” to “Democrat.”

On September 8, Tennessee moved from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up.”

On September 6, New Jersey  shifted from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up.”

On September 5, Rhode Island moved from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up.”

On the first day of September, Rasmussen Reports changed the Minnesota Senate race from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.” On August 25, we shifted Pennsylvania from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.” Santorum remains the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent, but he has closed to within single digits.

On August 24, Washington moved from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”

On August 18, in the wake of controversial remarks by Senator George Allen, Virginia changed from “Republican” to “Leans Republican.”

Scott Rasmussen is president of Rasmussen Reports, an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Visit their Election Polls page to see a summary of our latest state-by state polling. Rasmussen Reports is polling competitive Senate and Governors' races at least once a month this year. They also update the President's Job Approval on a daily basis. Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome. During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web.