Status of Elections for U.S. Senate
by Elizabeth Moody

Midterm elections tend to have lower turnout rates than presidential election years. Lower turnout rates and recent voting machine issues, like those in Maryland, can deter voters from tuning in and turning out on Election Day. Ballot initiatives can be a factor in coaxing single-issue voters to the polls.

David S. Broder of the Washington Post articulates: “Politicians have discovered that voters who may be indifferent to the candidates can be mobilized when issues of importance to them are on the ballot, appealing to ideology or self-interest.”

Similarly, Samuel L. Popkin (1994) discusses in The Reasoning Voter, the role of cues and information shortcuts (an issue, party label, nationality, or incumbency) to assist voters in their electoral decisions. A ballot initiative, therefore, serves as a shortcut to increase awareness and engagement in the election. Candidates must also take a position on the issue, which provides voters with a state-level litmus test.

In an election cycle where there are many tight races and/or potential losses for Republicans, will social ballot initiatives help the conservative cause? Likewise, will initiatives that would help liberal constituents, like the minimum wage amendments, help Democratic candidates?

The Ballot Initiative Strategy Center (BISC) indicates what initiatives they feel will motivate conservative and progressive voters in 2006:

Initiatives that could help conservative candidates:
Marriage Amendments in Idaho, Colorado, South Dakota, Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin and South Carolina.

Pro-Property Rights amendments in Alaska, California, Idaho, Nevada, Montana, and Washington.

Education: 65% Solution amendments in Oklahoma, Washington, and Colorado.

Initiatives that could help progressive/liberal candidates:
Amendments to Increase the Minimum Wage: Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio and Montana.

Amendments to counter the property rights measures (Anti-Kelo) in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, and Nevada.

Other regulatory amendments like one on Stem Cell Research (Missouri), Smoking Bans (Arizona, Nevada and Ohio), and Renewable Energy (California and Washington).

Missouri and Ohio have amendments that BIS feels would only benefit progressives. Some argue that the Stem Cell initiative in Missouri, however, could help get more conservatives to the polls (Broder, 2006).

The Hill’s Jonathan Kaplan, however, writes about why Democratic candidates, including Senate candidate Claire McCaskill could benefit more than conservatives from these initiatives. He mentions how there are groups in Missouri, like Give Missourians a Raise, that are working to increase voter registration. Increasing voter registration can increase voter turnout, but it also depends on the saliency of the issue itself.

Other notable states, like Virginia and Tennessee have marriage amendments on the ballot.

Property rights issues have also increased in the wake of Kelo v. New London. Eric Kelderman of Stateline.org reflects on the Center for Responsive Politics recent report that indicates that the Protect our Homes Coalition, “$2.3 million to support a ballot measure limiting the government's use of eminent domain powers to seize private property in California.” The Center for Responsive Politics’ research suggests that“527 activity this election has shifted from issues and elections affecting all 50 states to issues and elections in individual states.”

Will ballot initiatives play a significant role in the 2006 elections? Yes and no. Yes – they do increase awareness and can activate and mobilize voters to get to the polls. No- because while they do increase engagement in the election, they are not a guarantee to benefit one side consistently election cycle to election cycle.

Here is an Overview of the major Senate races, their fundraising and polling.

Maryland (Sarbanes-D retiring):

Polling:

Fundraising:

[Source: FEC]

Minnesota (Dayton-D retiring):

Polling:

Fundraising:

[Source: FEC]

Missouri:

Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent will be running against State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D). While Talent has strong party support, McCaskill’s showing in the 2004 gubernatorial race has earned her considerable support from the DSCC (2005-2006 DSCC contributes so far).

Polling:

Fundraising:

[Source: FEC]

Montana:

Republican Senator Conrad Burns’ seat is considered ‘in trouble’ due to his entanglement in the Abramoff Scandal.  Montana had its primary June 6, 2006. Burns will face Tester (nominated by 60.3%) in November (results).

Polling:

Fundraising:

[Source: FEC]

New Jersey:

Polling:

Fundraising:

Ohio:

Polling:

Fundraising:

[Source: FEC]

Pennsylvania:

Polling:

Fundraising:

[Source: FEC]

Rhode Island:

Polling:

Fundraising:

Tennessee (Frist-R retiring):

Polling:

Fundraising:

[Source: FEC]

Virginia:

Polling:

Fundraising: