GOP Lose Congress?
By Allen Roth

The following posting appeared recently, under the headline, “House Republican Prospects: The Case for Pessimism.”

"The poll conducted for National Public Radio by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican pollster Glenn Bolger focused on the 50 House races that are thought to be competitive. The pollsters talked to 1,000 likely voters in these districts and found that respondents currently favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican by a margin of about 6 percentage points.

In 2004, according to NPR, Republicans had the advantage in these districts by a margin of 12 percentage points. That margin produced 40 Republican and 10 Democratic winners. If the Democrats' alleged margin of half that size were to produce 30 Democratic winners, the Democrats would pick up 20 seats, enough to give them control.

But has there really been a swing of 18 percentage points in these districts? Possibly. Some polls reflect roughly that amount of swing in President Bush's approval numbers. In this poll (which again was confined to 50 districts) 42 percent of respondents approved of Bush's performance, while 55 percent disapproved."

A Republican pollster I know confirms these findings. He says immigration and big government are killing the Republicans.