Christianity At Christmas 2005

Santa Claus, Christmas trees, Yule logs, sleigh bells, reindeer, Tiny Tim, cold Decembers, White Christmases, even wintry nativities and star-watching are our accepted symbols of Christmas--all symbols of the north, of Europe, of North America.

These symbols are not immutable. In the year 1900, the ten largest Christian countries were all socially European and were the most powerful and among the populous nations in the world. By 2050, none of the top 10 largest countries on the planet will be in Europe and only the United States and Brazil will be majority Christian with any sizeable European population.

Who could have believed in1900--when Christian Europe and its North American offshoot held 30 percent of the world’s total population and ruled much of the rest--that its size would be cut almost in half by 2005, and that by 2050 Europeans would be down to a mere 11 percent of earth’s population? Today Christianity is predominantly a non-European phenomenon. In 1900, 82 percent of Christians were in Europe/North America, while today only 39 percent are today and by 2050 it will be at a mere 28 percent.

One could win a great deal betting which countries in 2050 would have the most Christians. China would be second (after the U.S.), Congo-Zaire would be fourth (after Brazil), and India would have the fifth largest concentration of Christians, followed by Mexico, Nigeria, Philippines, Ethiopia and Uganda. China, Congo, India and not one country in Europe, it seems inconceivable! If your bluff is called, cite Dr. Todd M. Johnson, Director of the Center Of Global Christianity for the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, augmented here by United Nations and poll data

The top population countries will be India, China and the United States. But they will not be as dominant, slipping from 42 percent of the world population to 37 percent in 2050, with the next three nations Islamic— Pakistan, Indonesia and Bangladesh, each about as large as the population of the United States—with Islam gaining greatly in relative influence. Latin America will almost equal the size of Europe and the U.S. combined. Africa will be the big gainer, moving from eight to twenty percent of the world population. And these trends are expected to continue over the next 100 years.

The reason is for this radical change in the world is simple. It takes approximately 2.1 children per childbearing-aged woman to reproduce a population. Europeans have rejected their Creator’s first injunction to “be fruitful and multiply” and Muslims and Third World Christians have not. Of 43 countries with declining populations, not one professes Islam or is in South America and few are African, but 34 are European. Of the ten countries with the highest fertility, all are in Africa except Afghanistan, with six being majority Muslim and three with large Islamic minorities. Today, not one of the five largest nations is Muslim but in 2050 three will be. Basically all other major religious or non-religious traditions will be losing relative to these two, especially relative to Islam.

In spite of that, Christianity will probably remain the single largest religion because of its strength in Latin America, Africa and Asia, although Islam could possibly pass it after 2050. The difference is that most Christians will be warmer, poorer, weaker and often in minority status. While China and India will represent two of the world’s largest Christian populations Christians will be small minorities within them. In some places Christians and Muslims will be almost equally divided as in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Sudan (if they do not divide), most of which have traditionally been ruled by Muslims.

The Christian estimates might be too high if one demands a rigorous agreement on accepted precepts. Even Muslims are divided into Sunni (83%) and Shi’ah (16%) and Sufis and others. But Christians are divided into Catholics (50%), Protestants (18%), Orthodox (11%), Anglican (3%), Other (18%) in tens of thousands of denominations with different precepts. They total two billion adherents compared to one billion Muslims, 900 million Hindus, 500 million theistic and 500 million non-theistic non-religionists, 400 million Chinese traditional, 375 million Buddhists and many smaller groups.

Christian religious participation varies greatly too but some do not even encourage it. For Muslims participation in prayer and services is emphasized and is very high worldwide. Christian church participation is not surprisingly highest in Catholic countries that demand it, as in Poland and Ireland, where 50 percent of the population attends in a week and in the United States (with a large active evangelical Protestantism), Italy and Portugal at 30-40 percent ,but with an average participation in Europe closer to 10 percent, with the Netherlands, Scandinavia and France even lower at five percent.

European secularism has grown dramatically as shown in the low church attendance rates and especially by an anemic 1.4 population replacement rate. So, is Europe now de-Christianized and secular? That is not so clear. Even in Europe most Christians attend church at least once a year or more to celebrate Christ’s birth and the like. When asked about their values, including choices of atheist, agnostic or “no religion,” 97% in Ireland say Christian, 93% in Portugal and Spain, and Norway, Finland and Denmark are as high, Switzerland is 88%, Britain is 83%, Italy is 82%, Germany 76%, France 71%, and even Sweden is 68%. Non-Christian religions range from only a 9 percent high in France down to 6 percent in Britain. Those with no religion only represent 18% in Sweden, 17% in Germany, 16% in France, and 12% in Britain, compared to 9% in the U.S. When asked if they believe in God, only Sweden reports less than majority support (46%) for a supreme being, with most nations ranging around Germany at two-thirds support for the belief.

The minimal requirement for a Christian way of life would seem to be prayer. That rate in Europe is surprisingly high, with the overwhelming percentage of the population saying it prays several times a day. Even the lowest estimates are that almost all say they pray at least once a month or more, with only the French and Scandinavians saying only several times a year. Why would secularists pray at all, or even two-thirds or more express belief in God and life after death after years of secularization? A poll by the German magazine Der Spiegel even found two-thirds of young people saying it was cool to believe in something deeper than self. It found religious items like crosses and rosaries were “in.”

Still, Christmas will indeed be very different a very few years. The remaining Christians in Europe might have difficulty finding priests and ministers to lead services or their countries might be repopulated by Muslims and participation might be restricted or banned. A large percentage of Christian will be small minorities in lands where they are discouraged from attendance or forbidden as in present day China and Islam. Latin America may go the way of European secularism or religion might strengthen as in the U.S. Christianity seems most alive and well in Africa where the greatest increase in population will occur.

Yes, Christianity will survive and even prosper. But it will be much changed. Its center of gravity is moving rapidly South, and East. Of course, it did not begin in Europe and its center of gravity for years was Middle Eastern but it will be an historic shift nonetheless. Future Christmas will be less cold, less white, less lavish, less commercial, less wealthy, less European, less Anglo-American.

Jesus’ last commandment to his followers was not to go to Europe or America but to “go out to the whole world” with his Christmas message of “peace on earth, good will toward men.” Isaiah had already urged, “Widen the spaces of your tent, for you will burst out to right and left” so that, “all the ends of the earth will behold the salvation of our God.”

Donald Devine, Editor.

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