Future Conservative Leadership

It is incredible but George W. Bush has not even been sworn in for his second term as president and the political chattering in Washington has already switched to 2008.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist made the opening move. He was the first prominent Republican to publicly express reservations about Arlen Specter becoming chairman of the Judiciary Committee after the later questioned whether a nominee who supported overturning Roe v. Wade could be confirmed for the Supreme Court. Every head inside the Beltway turned and asked, why would the normally reserved Leader get so far out front against a fellow member of the club, one whose vote he would have to seek out in a closely-divided Senate?

The astonishment was compounded when Frist quietly added a "conscience clause" in the Omnibus Spending Bill to allow doctors and medical personnel to refuse to participate in abortions if they had moral objections to the procedure, overturning existing policy. Clearly, the insiders reasoned, the Leader had read the election returns and realized that his ambitions to become president lay in winning the support of the moral right that was so critical to the GOP's 2004 victory.

Almost as quickly, Sen. George Allen was touting his success as head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in gaining a net of four new seats in the upper house, which his news release labeled "historic." The blitz began with promotions by the NRSC staff and ended with a prominent puff piece in the town's preeminent conservative billboard, The Washington Times. Then, everyone jumped in with various political handicappers mentioning former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and governor George Pataki, Senators John McCain, Chuck Hagel, Rick Santorum, and governors Mit Romney of Massachusetts, Jeb Bush of Florida, Bill Owens of Colorado and Mark Sanford of South Carolina. Giuliani and McCain were far out in front of the GOP field in the polls, as was Hillary Clinton for the Democrats.

It is, of course, very early to handicap the race but top expert Charles Cook suggested that the polls do mean something, even this far out. He noted that this will be the first time since 1928 when no incumbent president or vice president will be on the ballot and so the race will be especially wide open. Although he conceded it was hard to see how a pro-abortion, pro-gay, anti-gun Easterner could win the Republican nomination, he correctly emphasized that Giuliani is a "rock star" who could draw interest even in the South and overcome the odds. It is difficult to see how moderates like Pataki (especially from his own state) and Romney could breathe in the same space. McCain has run before and must be considered an exception, one who could compete with the former mayor. If he does, his friend Hagel probably would not run but if McCain does not get into the race the Nebraskan could become his effective surrogate.

Frist, another moderate, who has been the conservatives' bet noir at the last two convention platform hearings enforcing GOP centrism on reluctant rightist delegates, is another matter. As leader, he can do favors for social conservatives during the next four years as his two recent moves prove. While opponents will note that he ultimately supported Specter, he did remove a very objectionable limit on personal freedom, appealing to both evangelicals and Catholics. More important, he is close to President Bush and is rumored to be the Bush personal and organizational favorite for 2008. This would give him a preeminent fundraising advantage operating from the top government position under only the president himself.

On the conservative side, Sen. Santorum has definitely hurt himself for his support of Specter not only for the chairmanship but, more critically, in Specter's primary against conservative favorite, Rep. Pat Toomey. Indeed, many conservatives complain that his support was key to Toomey's loss since President Bush could not have also supported Specter if Santorum had not done so first. In any event, Santorum probably will not run for president, reportedly preferring Frist's Majority Leader job when he moves up to president. Gov. Jeb Bush has repeatedly said he will not run in 2008, a position confirmed by no less than his mother, Barbara.

Gov. Bill Owens had been the conservative favorite because of his long-time association with conservative causes and his strong record as governor, a position historically much stronger in competing for president than senator. Yet, Owens' support for businessman Peter Coors against conservative stalwart Rep. Bob Schaffer angered many on the right, who thought the more substantive Congressman was not only more sound ideologically but could have won in November as a more convincing candidate. The Colorado governor has also been involved in a messy separation from his wife of many years, and she has all of the sympathy in the matter both in the state and nationwide. One major national conservative analyst who is very close to Owens believes this will disqualify him from seeking the presidency.

That leaves Sen. Allen and Gov. Sanford as the most likely conservative champions. Allen's best claim is his previous record as governor of Virginia. He exudes charm and folksiness and would be very appealing to middle America. His profile in the Senate has been low except for the insider NRSC role and his lifetime voting record is only three points higher than Frist's. His gubernatorial record, however, gives him not only the executive experience most of the right desire but demonstrates solid conservative accomplishments on taxes, spending and the environment. We have called Sanford the most conservative governor in America (http://acuf.org/issues/issue15/040703news.asp) and his record in the House was impeccable. He is the smartest one around, although he does not advertise it, and he is immoveable on principle. The only problem is that he is up for re-election in 2006 and he has the good sense not to want to think about the presidency at all this early in the game.

Of course, 2008 is a long way off and somehow the country must survive until then. The sixth year of a presidential term is always difficult for the incumbent party in Congressional elections and that is only two years away. President Bush has already taken steps in the Omnibus Spending Bill to begin reducing the rate of increase in domestic spending and promises to reform entitlements, stabilize the dollar and deal with the trade deficit. He is also keeping on schedule to hold elections in Iraq, on December 2 specifically linking the elections to bringing American troops home. These are proposals of enormous magnitude and will require more courageous support in Congress than the GOP has been willing to demonstrate during the president's first term.

Fortunately, Tom Coburn (OK) and Jim DeMint (SC) have been newly elected to the Senate, after earlier service in the House. As we argued before the election, only a few committed legislators can make a big difference in the Senate, where the rules favor individualists, and these two go-getters can finally fill the hole left when Jesse Helms and Phil Gramm retired. Together with Lindsey Graham (SC), John Sununu (NH), John Ensign (NV), Trent Lott (MS), and Judd Gregg (NH) -- all of whom also had the courage to oppose the flawed and spendthrift prescription drug bill in the last Congress -- there just might be the beginnings of an effective conservative Senate caucus.

Readers of ConservativeBattleline.com are aware that Mike Pence (IN), Jeff Flake (AZ), and Marilyn Musgrave (CO) have led efforts to make the Republican Study Committee caucus in the House more effective for conservative principles. They are backed by the other members who had the courage to stand up to the strong-arm tactics of the GOP leadership and can be counted on for conservative leadership in the next Congress including Todd Akin (MO), J. Gresham Barrett (SC), Dan Burton (IN), Steve Chabot (OH), John Culberson (TX, Jo Ann Emerson (MO), Tom Feeney (FL), Scott Garrett (NJ), Gil Gutknecht (MN), John Hostettler (IN), Walter Jones (NC), Jeff Miller (FL), Jerry Moran (KS), Ron Paul (TX), Jim Ryun (KS), John Shadegg, (AZ), Tom Tancredo (CO), and Zach Wamp (TN). They expect to be joined by newly elected members and even some current ones who have since had buyers remorse for supporting the budget-busting drug bill.

There is also good news regarding their former House colleague in the battle to hold down entitlement spending, Pat Toomey. Speculation is high in the state that he will run for governor of Pennsylvania. Kenneth Blackwell, the solid conservative secretary of state in Ohio, is also aiming at his state's governorship. In other words, there are many conservatives who are in office in positions of potential leadership. But outside conservatives must support and encourage them and help them increase their ranks.

If conservatives need motivation, consider that Hillary Clinton leads the Democrats for 2008. Frankly, a relatively conservative Democrat like Senator (and former governor) Evan Bayh of Indiana or Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia would be more difficult to defeat in the general election but the mere possibility of her victory should inspire anyone on the right. She has handled herself cleverly as Senator and will be a formidable candidate. She has the advantage that she can move quite far right on policy without alienating her base and so successfully appeal to the middle, especially if the dollar continues to weaken and U.S. troops are still dying in Iraq.

If President Bush has reformed entitlements to stabilize the economy and limited the number of American military casualties, a moderate in his mold such as Sen. Frist would have a good chance for the Republican nomination to face Sen. Clinton. But it is likely independent voters will be looking for something new under these circumstances, making her the favorite. If things seem to require a firm hand on terrorism at the time, however, Mayor Giuliani would probably be able to overcome Frist for the nomination, even with his liberal social record. If candidate Bush was able to change the party on education and spending, why could not a more charismatic mayor do the same on social issues? Yet, this would have social conservatives sit out the election or support a third party (under, for example, Pat Buchanan) making Sen. Clinton, again, the favorite.

Can a consistent conservative be nominated and elected in 2008? A conservative would have the best chance for the presidency paradoxically if Republicans fritter away their mandate the next four years and the country woke to the fact that the date for the entitlement explosion would then only be eight years away. The former will be decided by what President Bush and the GOP leadership do and the degree of intransigence on the part of the Democratic opposition; the later is in the hands of conservatives themselves. A serious conservative candidate willing to confront the real problems facing America could be elected in 2008 but it would take a great deal of work on the part of the conservative movement that has to have started yesterday. It would be a long shot against high odds but conservatives could do it.

If a Bill, Rudy and Hillary trifecta is not enough to inspire conservatives to action, nothing can.

Donald Devine, Editor.

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