Changing the Troop Deployment
by James Atticus Bowden

President Bush's recall of troops from Europe and Asia is part of a strategic offensive realignment, not a defensive retreat. The plan has been in the works since Donald Rumsfeld became Secretary of Defense. Although, for the time being, it won't be coupled to the two division cut in the Army Rumsfeld also wanted.

An Army brigade is coming out of Korea. It is not clear what will happen to the personnel in Okinawa. The bulk of the realignment, 70,000 out of 100,000, are from two Army divisions and support in Germany. The best reason for pulling the divisions is to free future deployments from European political restrictions. It is good to have the airbases stay put in Europe. The worst negative is wasting the world-class firing ranges at Grafenwoehr and instrumented maneuver at Hohenfels.

I wrote a paper in 1992, 'The Centurion Strategy', after the fall of the Soviet Empire. WWIII, the Cold War, ended with the U.S. in the same strategic position as Rome after the defeat of the Carthaginians (146 BC). No peer competitor could arise before 2030, if then. Dissolution and civil war is a threat. The other danger is the multitudes beyond the borders of our civilization.

I projected the future 'barbarians' at the gates would be the 'Have Nots' against the 'Haves' of Western Civilization and Japan. Someone, I called him 'Gandhi with Guns', would articulate the 'have not' grievances. The movement might be based in Islam, but it could have another ancient civilization identity - India or other Asian or African. My bosses in the Army and the leaders of the Army After Next wargames (1997-2000) didn't buy this idea of a future global ideological struggle.

The U.S. doesn't have the Imperial ambitions or will of a Rome. Instead, the colossal size of U.S. power astride the world imposes Imperial responsibilities, rather than opportunities. Like it or not, the U.S. is in the Imperial Republic era of American Civilization. Our challenge is to survive with Imperial power and at the same time thrive as a Republic. Rome couldn't do it.

The U.S. is now on the offensive against Islamist barbarians. New allies liberated from the Soviet Empire get it, even if U.S. Liberals don't. I was in Romania this year working with their Ministry of Defense. The Romanians are enthusiastic about being new NATO allies. They lived history and see the future. Romanians joke "the Black Sea is their only good neighbor". They want to be aligned with the greatest power in the world - for the first time since they were part of the Roman Empire. They can't wait to build a U.S. base in their country. The Romanians suffer combat casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq in stride.

Meanwhile, it will take a decade to recall U.S. Army divisions. A decade from now, the Army starts fielding brigade after brigade of the Future Combat Systems - transformed into modular 'Units of Action'. The 'heavy' divisions won't be heavy at all, but flexible and mobile.

Planting soldiers' families at stateside bases for seven years at a time is good for the troops. Unfortunately, taking the Army out of Europe puts it at risk for force cuts at the expense of lobbying by the Marine Corps. Maybe, someday, the Army will learn the politics to preserve its force structure like Marines do. Because, the size of the Army is the biggest strategic problem facing the U.S. The active Army should be more - 600,000 soldiers - at least.

When the day comes to go into North Korea or Iran, or any Muslim country that is a threat, the U.S. will need a lot more Army.

James Atticus Bowden has specialized in inter-disciplinary long range 'futures' studies for over a decade. He is employed by a Defense Department contractor. He is a retired United States Army Infantry Officer. He is a 1972 graduate of the United States Military Academy and earned graduate degrees from Harvard University and Columbia University. He holds two elected Republican Party offices in Virginia.