Targeting African-American Voters
by Larry L. Eastland, Ph. D.

Current voting patterns in America show:

• About 100 million Americans voted in the 2000 presidential election.
• About 12 percent of all voters nationally identify themselves as Black Americans. 1
• Traditionally, one of the most monolithic voting blocks in America has been the voter of African-American heritage. About 86-90 percent of self-identified Black American voters historically voted for the Democratic candidate for President.

But why do 10-14 percent of self-identified Black American voters vote Republican? The percentage may seem small, but when looked at in raw numbers, it represents between one and one and a half million votes. That's a lot of voters!

Being of Black African heritage may be important to a person, and to many might be the most important characteristic of their life. But, to a segment of the Black community, apparently it is not a primary voting characteristic in comparison with other attributes such as socio-economic status ("SES"). It might be said that on Election Day people would (consciously or unconsciously) have to decide if they were voters who happened to be Black Americans, or Black Americans who happened to be voting. See the difference? Whatever the reason, when there is such a difference, it presents a very real opportunity Republicans to do better.

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies has published a national opinion poll on politics every two years since 1994. A major component of these studies focuses on Black American voters. 2 Its 2002 Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies National Opinion Poll surveyed 1,647 adults comprising two groups: 850 adults drawn from a general population sample, and 850 adult African American respondents. Because of some overlap, the actual final total was 1,647. There were some very interesting findings, raising several interesting questions. For example:

• 71 percent of Black voters wanted a Democratic Congress, 11 percent a Republican Congress, and 18 percent were undecided. This means that Republicans had the opportunity to get 29 percent of the Black vote without switching a single Democratic vote. Why didn't they?
• President Bush received excellent or good marks for his job performance from 39 percent of Black respondents. What does he need to do to translate this positive attitude by almost four in ten Black voters into actual votes for him in this 2004 Presidential Election?
• The Republican-controlled Congress received excellent/good marks from 34 percent of Black voters. What will motivate these voters to vote for a Republican Member of Congress in their district this year?
• Finally, 10 percent of Black voters identify themselves as Republicans, and an additional 24 percent as Independents. This means that one-third of African American voters (34%) have made a decision that the Democratic Party does not represent them. Their vote is "in play." I say this because the traditional view is that Democrats have a lock on the Black vote, on Black allegiance, and Black leadership. Apparently, one third of Black American adults in America haven't gotten that message or have rejected it having heard it.

But, these are not just percentages and statistics. They are real people, Americans of African heritage for whom Kwesei Mfune and his bitter, vitriolic colleagues who have hijacked a great civil rights organization, the NAACP, hold no sway. Their numbers translate as follows:

• Nearly three and a half million Americans of African decent do not necessarily or automatically want a Democratic Congress.
• Four and a half million Black Americans are positive on President Bush.
• Four million black voters like what they see in the Republican-controlled Congress.
• And, one third of all African American voters - that's four million -- are either Republicans or could be persuaded to be Republicans.

If the Republican Party were to target just these voters in the 2004 General Election, and be successful, it could change the face of American politics for the remainder of our lifetime.

1 For ease of use, this group generally will be referred to throughout as "Black Americans." No offense is intended toward those who choose other terms of identification for this segment of the population. It is simply an easier phrase, and one that would not appear cumbersome by overuse.

2 The terms "adults" and "voters" were not defined in the methodological appendix in a way that distinguished one from the other. And, while it may not be important in a general sense, "adults" is generally thought of as any citizen of the United States 18 years of age or older. "Voters" are people who actually voted in a previous election. That, too, is indistinct because what if a person voted in 1998 but not 2000? Or, what if a person voted in a local school bond election, but not a national election? We'll have to make do.