Democratic Surge?
by Scott Rasmussen
Issue 117 - October 8, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year.

It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess (see trends).

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, a daily measure of economic confidence, shows that both consumer and investor confidence has dipped slightly since Congress passed the financial bailout bill on Friday. If people could vote on whether to keep or replace the entire Congress, just 17% would vote to keep them and 59% would replace the entire Congress and start over again.

As for the Presidential race, Obama now leads by two points among men. That’s the first time he has led among men all year and he also enjoys a fourteen point advantage among women. Obama attracts 12% of Republican voters and leads by eleven among those not affiliated with either major political party. McCain gets the vote from 11% of Democrats (see other recent demographic highlights).

It is worth noting that Obama’s lead is now bigger than any lead enjoyed at any point by either candidate in Election 2004.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 53% (see trends). Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is given a 65.8% chance of winning in November (see market expectations for key states).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 217 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 264-185 (see Quick Campaign Overview). There are currently six states in the Toss-Up category— Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama were to win all the states that are currently leaning in his direction, he would need to win only one of those six toss-up states to become the nation’s next President.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.