Clinton Tied—Dems Still Up
by Scott Rasmussen
Issue 104 - March 26, 2008

As of the end of last week, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Likely Democratic Primary Voters evenly divided the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Nationally, Barack Obama now holds a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 45% to 44%. Before the story broke about his former Pastor, Obama led Clinton by eight percentage points. These results are identical to those just before Obama’s Tuesday morning speech (see recent daily results).

Nationally, 51% of all Likely Voters said that speech was good or excellent. Just 21% said poor. However, 56% remain concerned about Obama’s relationship with Pastor Jeremiah Wright. See Obama’s Speech.

Obama’s favorable ratings remain little changed from recent days—48% favorable, 50% unfavorable. Before the Pastor Problem became big news, Obama was viewed favorably by 52%. One month ago, he was viewed favorably by 56%. The number with a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama has increased from 26% a week ago to 33% today.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 43%. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily results).

Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents. On Friday morning, McCain leads Barack Obama 49% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 51% to 41% (see recent daily results). New polling from Minnesota shows a very close race in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. With those new poll results, Minnesota moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Democrats currently lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 247 to 229. Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling).

The bottom line is that Obama is given a 41% chance of becoming the next President while McCain is given a 40% chance. That’s a big change since the beginning of the month when Obama was given a 58% chance of winning while expectations for McCain were at 36%. March has been a very good month for John McCain. But, a Rasmussen Reports video notes that a good month of March doesn’t get you to the White House. That requires a good day in November. There is at least one major issue standing between McCain and a victory celebration in November—the economy.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com."